Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00245420           3          15          50          25           7        C4.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00114117           3           3          71          20           3        C5.0
GOES Xray  =   1.68196e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            99           1           1          67          26           5        C6.1
 
together                             2.00        4.75       53.25       32.50        7.50     C7.7
 
realized                                                                                      M4.7