Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242260           1          13          62          20           4        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00110289           2          12          64          15           7        C3.3
GOES Xray  =   1.13833e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            50           2          15          69          13           1        C2.0
 
together                             1.50       10.00       55.00       26.75        6.75     C4.2
 
realized                                                                                      M1.6