Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00250909           1           5          62          30           2        C4.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00125093           1           1          64          31           3        C5.7
GOES Xray  =   1.97932e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           108           1           0          59          33           7        C8.2
 
together                             0.50        2.00       52.50       38.25        6.75     C8.4
 
realized                                                                                      X2.0