Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00241821           2          14          63          17           4        C2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00109241           2          14          63          15           6        C3.3
GOES Xray  =   1.14396e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            83           1           1          58          34           6        C7.5
 
together                             1.50        7.25       52.25       31.25        7.75     C6.3
 
realized                                                                                      M1.5