Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00246171           2          15          53          23           7        C5.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00115456           3           3          73          19           2        C4.6
GOES Xray  =   1.77376e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            82           2           1          58          33           6        C7.2
 
together                             2.00        4.75       52.25       33.50        7.50     C8.0
 
realized                                                                                      M4.5