Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00250832           1           5          63          30           1        C4.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00121577           1           4          65          27           3        C4.8
GOES Xray  =   2.95015e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           111           1           0          56          35           8        C8.3
 
together                             0.25        2.75       52.50       37.75        6.75     C8.3
 
realized                                                                                      M4.5