Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00252326           1           2          64          29           4        C5.3
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00124650           1           1          66          29           3        C5.1
GOES Xray  =   2.46727e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           121           1           0          51          41           7        C9.2
 
together                             0.50        1.00       51.75       39.50        7.25     C8.8
 
realized                                                                                      M1.5