Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00241352           3          14          66          15           2        C2.5
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00106184           2          15          61          19           3        C3.2
GOES Xray  =   1.28552e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            68           1           8          67          23           1        C3.8
 
together                             1.75        9.25       54.75       29.00        5.25     C4.9
 
realized                                                                                      M1.2