Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242293           1          13          62          20           4        C3.3
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00109898           2          13          65          13           7        C3.1
GOES Xray  =   1.11638e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            99           1           1          67          26           5        C6.1
 
together                             1.25        6.75       54.75       29.50        7.75     C5.8
 
realized                                                                                      C4.2