Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242367           1          13          63          19           4        C3.2
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00107196           2          14          63          18           3        C3.7
GOES Xray  =   1.40144e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           103           1           1          66          28           4        C5.5
 
together                             1.25        7.00       54.25       31.00        6.50     C6.0
 
realized                                                                                      M1.2