Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00237294           1          27          59          11           2        C2.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000968124           2          30          50          16           2        C2.0
GOES Xray  =   1.07339e-06           1           0          26          59          14        M1.8
est. ISN   =            44           4          28          60           7           1        C1.5
 
together                             2.00       21.25       48.75       23.25        4.75     C2.9
 
realized                                                                                      M5.0