Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00238434           5          19          57          17           2        C2.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000989725           2          19          51          24           4        C3.0
GOES Xray  =   1.10373e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            52           1          18          65          15           1        C2.1
 
together                             2.25       14.00       49.50       28.75        5.50     C4.2
 
realized                                                                                      X1.8