Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00238944           5          17          56          20           2        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000995692           2          20          51          24           3        C2.8
GOES Xray  =   1.13620e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            80           1           3          65          27           4        C5.6
 
together                             2.25       10.00       49.25       32.50        6.00     C5.6
 
realized                                                                                      M1.7