Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00238901           5          17          57          18           3        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000995519           2          20          51          24           3        C2.8
GOES Xray  =   1.11747e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            91           1           0          74          20           5        C4.7
 
together                             2.25        9.25       51.75       30.25        6.50     C5.4
 
realized                                                                                      C4.8