Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00238655           5          19          57          17           2        C3.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000992649           2          21          49          24           4        C2.8
GOES Xray  =   1.04417e-06           1           0          29          59          11        M1.5
est. ISN   =            98           1           1          68          25           5        C5.9
 
together                             2.25       10.25       50.75       31.25        5.50     C5.6
 
realized                                                                                      X1.7