Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00245190           5          15          49          24           7        C4.1
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00114014           2           3          71          21           3        C5.0
GOES Xray  =   1.63123e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           101           1           1          67          26           5        C5.5
 
together                             2.25        4.75       53.00       32.50        7.50     C7.7
 
realized                                                                                      C5.4