Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242143           2          13          62          19           4        C2.8
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00108749           3          15          65          14           3        C2.6
GOES Xray  =   1.40176e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =           101           1           1          67          26           5        C5.5
 
together                             1.75        7.25       54.75       29.50        6.75     C5.5
 
realized                                                                                      X1.1