Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00258755           3           4          61          28           4        C5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00128787           1           2          62          32           3        C6.4
GOES Xray  =   5.17053e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            78           1           5          65          24           5        C5.6
 
together                             1.50        2.75       53.25       35.75        6.75     C8.0
 
realized                                                                                      X2.8