Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242924           2          15          62          18           3        C3.2
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00106202           2          15          61          19           3        C3.2
GOES Xray  =   2.07285e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            94           1           0          69          25           5        C6.1
 
together                             1.50        7.50       54.25       30.25        6.50     C6.2
 
realized                                                                                      X1.5