Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00237891           5          26          54          13           2        C2.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000984389           3          19          51          24           3        C2.8
GOES Xray  =   1.04232e-06           1           0          29          59          11        M1.5
est. ISN   =            70           1           3          68          26           2        C4.3
 
together                             2.25       12.25       50.50       30.50        4.50     C4.9
 
realized                                                                                      M1.2