Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00236141           4          30          55          10           1        C1.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   0.000951661           1          34          51          13           1        C1.8
GOES Xray  =   1.04389e-06           1           0          29          59          11        M1.5
est. ISN   =            59           3          19          61          16           1        C2.7
 
together                             2.25       20.75       49.00       24.50        3.50     C3.4
 
realized                                                                                      X2.5