Estimated Flare Probability ("Lev" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =    0.00242026           2          15          62          17           4        C2.7
LYRA ch2-4 =    0.00105788           2          14          58          21           5        C4.1
GOES Xray  =   1.52382e-06           1           0          25          59          15        M1.8
est. ISN   =            80           1           3          65          27           4        C5.6
 
together                             1.50        8.00       52.50       31.00        7.00     C6.2
 
realized                                                                                      X1.1