Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.25267e-05          10          67          23           0           0        B5.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   8.22974e-06          17          75           8           0           0        B3.5
GOES Xray  =   4.52338e-08           9          86           5           0           0        B5.1
est. ISN   =       33.0000           7          48          32          13           0        B8.9
 
together                            10.75       69.00       17.00        3.25        0.00     B5.2
 
realized                                                                                      B4.6