Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.02181e-05           1           3          81          15           0        C3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.50428e-05           1          10          77          12           0        C2.4
GOES Xray  =   1.11831e-07           2          20          73           5           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =       32.0000           4          46          38          12           0        C1.0
 
together                             2.00       19.75       67.25       11.00        0.00     C2.1
 
realized                                                                                      C1.1