Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.99822e-05           3          33          60           4           0        C1.2
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.17425e-05           4          22          67           7           0        C1.7
GOES Xray  =   7.84245e-08           6          63          28           3           0        B8.1
est. ISN   =       33.0000           7          48          32          13           0        B8.9
 
together                             5.00       41.50       46.75        6.75        0.00     C1.1
 
realized                                                                                      C1.9