Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.23432e-06          53          45           2           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.79675e-06          17          75           7           1           0        B3.1
GOES Xray  =   2.12833e-08          15          85           0           0           0        B2.4
est. ISN   =       25.0000           7          55          32           6           0        B6.5
 
together                            23.00       65.00       10.25        1.75        0.00     B2.6
 
realized                                                                                      B4.0