Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.41244e-06          52          45           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   6.55754e-06          23          73           3           1           0        B2.3
GOES Xray  =   1.17198e-08          38          62           0           0           0        B1.3
est. ISN   =       19.0000          15          59          23           3           0        B3.6
 
together                            32.00       59.75        7.25        1.00        0.00     B1.6
 
realized                                                                                    < B1.0 (no flare)