Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.29481e-06          21          73           5           1           0        B3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.54593e-06          17          75           7           1           0        B3.4
GOES Xray  =   6.72024e-08           6          69          24           1           0        B7.0
est. ISN   =       18.0000          18          59          20           3           0        B3.2
 
together                            15.50       69.00       14.00        1.50        0.00     B4.4
 
realized                                                                                      B4.6