Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   6.44329e-06          27          70           3           0           0        B2.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.78524e-06          17          75           7           1           0        B3.1
GOES Xray  =   4.94393e-08           8          82           9           1           0        B5.4
est. ISN   =       17.0000          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                            17.25       72.50        9.00        1.25        0.00     B3.7
 
realized                                                                                      B3.1