Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.00582e-05           1           0          46          42          11        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.91251e-05           1           0          69          29           1        C6.0
GOES Xray  =   1.96273e-07           1           1          74          23           1        C4.3
est. ISN   =       0.00000          51          40           9           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
 
together                            13.00       10.50       49.75       23.50        3.25     C4.1
 
realized                                                                                      C1.6