Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.05432e-05           8          76          15           1           0        B4.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.05989e-05          12          75          13           0           0        B4.9
GOES Xray  =   6.98355e-08           7          66          27           0           0        B7.3
est. ISN   =       8.00000          50          41           9           0           0        B1.0
 
together                            19.25       64.50       16.00        0.25        0.00     B4.7
 
realized                                                                                      C1.1