Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.11292e-05           9          72          19           0           0        B5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.14138e-05          10          71          19           0           0        B5.8
GOES Xray  =   6.12290e-08           7          71          21           1           0        B6.7
est. ISN   =       19.0000          15          59          23           3           0        B3.6
 
together                            10.25       68.25       20.50        1.00        0.00     B5.7
 
realized                                                                                      B5.8