Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   8.76978e-06          15          78           6           1           0        B3.6
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.41160e-06          15          74          11           0           0        B4.0
GOES Xray  =   2.74867e-08          12          87           1           0           0        B2.8
est. ISN   =       22.0000           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                            12.50       73.25       13.00        1.25        0.00     B3.7
 
realized                                                                                      B2.0