Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.10558e-05           9          73          18           0           0        B5.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.54531e-06          16          76           7           1           0        B3.5
GOES Xray  =   4.24576e-08           9          88           3           0           0        B4.6
est. ISN   =       20.0000          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                            11.75       73.50       13.75        1.00        0.00     B4.2
 
realized                                                                                      B4.2