Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.19169e-05           1           3          78          18           0        C3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.50236e-05           1          10          78          11           0        C2.4
GOES Xray  =   1.51735e-07           1           7          83           9           0        C2.4
est. ISN   =       22.0000           8          54          34           4           0        B6.5
 
together                             2.75       18.50       68.25       10.50        0.00     C2.3
 
realized                                                                                      C2.4