Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.01544e-05          10          77          12           1           0        B4.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.19109e-05           9          66          24           1           0        B7.0
GOES Xray  =   3.40195e-08          10          89           1           0           0        B3.7
est. ISN   =       23.0000           8          55          31           6           0        B6.5
 
together                             9.25       71.75       17.00        2.00        0.00     B4.5
 
realized                                                                                      B2.8