Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.26389e-05           1           1          81          17           0        C3.3
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.35066e-05           3          18          74           5           0        C1.9
GOES Xray  =   1.29424e-07           1          10          79          10           0        C2.1
est. ISN   =       20.0000          13          57          27           3           0        B4.6
 
together                             4.00       22.00       65.25        8.75        0.00     C1.9
 
realized                                                                                      C1.4