Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.13326e-05           9          72          19           0           0        B5.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.15190e-05           1           4          73          22           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   4.29687e-08           8          88           4           0           0        B4.6
est. ISN   =       17.0000          17          63          17           3           0        B2.9
 
together                             8.75       56.75       28.25        6.25        0.00     B6.0
 
realized                                                                                      B3.2