Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.47541e-05           1           3          75          19           2        C3.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.10561e-05           1           5          73          21           0        C3.8
GOES Xray  =   1.41894e-07           1           8          78          13           0        C2.6
est. ISN   =       9.00000          37          46          15           2           0        B1.6
 
together                            10.00       15.50       60.25       13.75        0.50     C2.4
 
realized                                                                                      M1.3