Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.72209e-05           4          44          49           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.41569e-05           3          58          36           3           0        B8.8
GOES Xray  =   9.41214e-08           1          33          66           0           0        C1.2
est. ISN   =       10.0000          29          51          18           2           0        B2.5
 
together                             9.25       46.50       42.25        2.00        0.00     B8.9
 
realized                                                                                      B7.3