Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)

based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   9.41686e-06          14          77           8           1           0        B3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.42323e-06          16          77           6           1           0        B3.5
GOES Xray  =   3.44619e-08          11          88           1           0           0        B3.7
est. ISN   =       13.0000          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            15.25       76.00        8.00        0.75        0.00     B3.5
 
realized                                                                                      B2.3