Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.96143e-05           3          37          57           3           0        C1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.62680e-05           5          47          42           6           0        B9.9
GOES Xray  =   2.47353e-08          14          86           0           0           0        B2.7
est. ISN   =       14.0000          18          64          16           2           0        B2.8
 
together                            10.00       58.50       28.75        2.75        0.00     B5.6
 
realized                                                                                      B1.7