Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   9.55258e-06          13          76          10           1           0        B3.9
LYRA ch2-4 =   7.23491e-06          15          79           5           1           0        B3.3
GOES Xray  =   7.48845e-08           7          64          27           2           0        B7.9
est. ISN   =       13.0000          20          62          17           1           0        B2.7
 
together                            13.75       70.25       14.75        1.25        0.00     B4.4
 
realized                                                                                      B4.1