Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   9.46503e-06          14          76           9           1           0        B3.7
LYRA ch2-4 =   9.65177e-06          15          73          12           0           0        B4.2
GOES Xray  =   1.05082e-07           1          27          69           3           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =       18.0000          18          59          20           3           0        B3.2
 
together                            12.00       58.75       27.50        1.75        0.00     B5.7
 
realized                                                                                      B2.6