Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.86674e-06          55          44           1           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.29594e-06          61          36           3           0           0      < B1.0 (no flare)
GOES Xray  =   2.30466e-08          18          82           0           0           0        B2.5
est. ISN   =       16.0000          16          65          16           3           0        B2.7
 
together                            37.50       56.75        5.00        0.75        0.00     B1.5
 
realized                                                                                      B3.6