Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.48981e-05           1           3          74          20           2        C3.8
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.81199e-05           1           1          68          27           3        C5.0
GOES Xray  =   1.07699e-07           1          26          70           3           0        C1.5
est. ISN   =       39.0000           5          47          41           6           1        B9.6
 
together                             2.00       19.25       63.25       14.00        1.50     C2.5
 
realized                                                                                      C4.0