Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   3.13656e-05           1           3          80          16           0        C3.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   2.73084e-05           2           8          79          10           1        C2.9
GOES Xray  =   1.55776e-07           1           5          81          13           0        C2.9
est. ISN   =       21.0000          12          52          33           3           0        B6.5
 
together                             3.75       17.25       68.25       10.50        0.25     C2.5
 
realized                                                                                      C4.7