Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   1.50754e-05          11          52          34           3           0        B8.4
LYRA ch2-4 =   1.13628e-05          10          72          18           0           0        B5.8
GOES Xray  =   1.44292e-07           1           5          81          13           0        C2.6
est. ISN   =       35.0000           6          54          30          10           0        B7.6
 
together                             7.00       45.75       40.75        6.50        0.00     B9.6
 
realized                                                                                      B9.6