Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   4.56149e-05           1           4          43          48           4        M1.0
LYRA ch2-4 =   3.67238e-05           1           2          72          23           2        C5.0
GOES Xray  =   2.44482e-07           1           0          41          51           7        M1.1
est. ISN   =       48.0000           4          21          63           9           3        C2.0
 
together                             1.50        7.00       54.75       32.75        4.00     C6.7
 
realized                                                                                      M6.6