Estimated Flare Probability ("Var" 2.0)


based on                            A[%]        B[%]        C[%]        M[%]        X[%]      median
--------------------------         -----       -----       -----       -----       -----      ------
LYRA ch2-3 =   5.10943e-05           1           0          42          43          14        M1.1
LYRA ch2-4 =   4.87198e-05           1           1          34          52          12        M1.3
GOES Xray  =   2.48156e-07           1           0          41          49           9        M1.1
est. ISN   =       40.0000           6          44          43           6           1        C1.0
 
together                             1.75       11.50       40.25       37.50        9.00     C8.9
 
realized                                                                                      C6.1